US election results: When will we know who is the next President?

Fifty-one separate elections, one in every US state, and each with its own rules and practices for counting the votes makes the presidential election a gruelling and fragmented affair. While November 5 may be “Election Day”, a final picture could take hours or days to emerge due to the neck-and-neck contest between Democrat Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump.
Compounding the matter is the fact that, unlike India, the US has no national election commission to tabulate the results. The state and local governments are responsible for counting the votes. Thus, the citizens of the US and the world keep an eye out on the American media, which “calls” the elections within hours of the end of voting.
In a vast country like the US, polls close at different times in different regions. The US has six time zones. According to the BBC, the last polls will close at 01.00 EST, which, as per Indian time, will be 11.30 am on Wednesday. Thus, by Wednesday night, a clear picture of the trends may start to emerge about who is ahead in the race to occupy the White House.
However, that too is dependent on a host of factors given the complex nature of the US election process. Of the 51 states, most of them have a predictable voting pattern, and their results are announced first after voting. However, it is the seven swing or battleground states that hold the key, and it might delay the final results.
In swing states, which have 93 electoral college votes, candidates of both the Democratic and Republican parties have similar levels of support. These swing states, especially Pennsylvania, will decide the next President. Narrow margins of victory in these swing states may require votes to be recounted, which will further delay the process. Legal challenges are also possible.
At the heart of the convoluted process is the electoral college system of presidential elections in the US. Unlike in India where citizens directly choose their candidate, Americans vote for electors who are selected by that candidate’s party.
The states are allocated a certain number of electors depending on their population size. There are a total of 538 electors and they form the electoral college. A candidate needs 270 votes to clinch the White House race. Thus, the popular vote nationally does not determine the final result.

Donald Trump with his daughter Tiffany Trump at his last election rally (AFP)

The 2020 US presidential election took place on November 3. However, it took four days (November 7) for the media to declare that Democrat Joe Biden had defeated Trump after the result in Pennsylvania became clearer. The margin in the key swing state was just 1.1 percentage points.
In 2020, initially Trump had an 11% lead. However, Biden snatched the lead over the next two days as mail-in ballots were counted.
The Associated Press has usually been the first media house to call elections in the US and has been doing so with near accuracy since 1848, when it declared Zachary Taylor as the 12th US president.
In the 2016 polls, the Associated Press had correctly declared Trump the winner on election night. The BBC declared the winner the next morning.
If we go back to 2012, Barack Obama was projected as the winner before midnight on polling day itself.

Kamala Harris went on a rare door-to-door campaign in Pennsylvania (AFP)

However, media houses declaring the winner is not the end of the election process. Rather, it is the beginning.
After the votes are cast, the states certify the results and the process has to be completed by December 11. Six days later, the 538 electors meet in their respective state capitals to formally cast their votes for the President and Vice President.
The certificates of these votes are then submitted to the US Senate chief by the fourth Wednesday of December.
On January 6, 2025, the US Congress convenes to count the electoral votes. It is on this day that the US voters officially get to know the number of votes cast for each candidate and the winner of the election. On January 20, the inauguration ceremony for the President takes place in Washington.